How do you know?

The next time a recruiter or any other member from the hiring team tells you they found the perfect candidate, ask them...how do you know?

Every hiring decision is built on beliefs about a person. These beliefs feel like facts. However, they are not facts at all. They are working conclusions built from limited information. These conclusions can change, and they should change as you learn more.

1. Our beliefs about candidates are never final.

Beliefs form in three distinct steps. We hear something. We believe it. Only sometimes do we check if that belief is actually factual. That last step is optional for many people. Most hiring managers do not audit and confront their own beliefs. Even for those who do, simply checking and confirming our early thoughts is often not enough to change our minds.

In hospitality hiring, this happens all the time. The resume says a candidate turned a property around, and we accept it. A reference says the person was an outstanding leader, and we accept it. An interviewer says the candidate was incredibly impressive in the room, and we accept that too. Almost nobody pauses to ask where the information came from or how reliable the source is.

What to do: Put a confidence level on your belief (high, medium, low, or a percentage) and write down the reason. It helps you see how much of your belief is evidence and how much is impression.

Almost nothing about a candidate is 0% or 100% certain, and we are usually less sure than we think. So treat the sentence "I found the candidate" as a starting point. It is not a conclusion. Your initial impression is merely a hypothesis that needs testing.

2. Great hiring is largely about seeking better information.

Great hiring requires you to challenge your beliefs and stay deeply curious. You have to step outside your comfort zone.

This information gathering starts at sourcing. We must ask who the strongest people in our industry are and how we actually know that. It continues through every single conversation and reference call. It ends in the final calibration discussion, where the stakes are highest.

The difficult part is that our brains don't like challenging a belief once it has formed. It doesn't come naturally. We naturally prefer a simple and clean reality. To push yourself to seek more information and not just accept reality as you are processing it right now, center your thinking around one central question:

What am I missing?

This question is a fantastic bridge to the specific inquiries you should use to pull your beliefs apart. When looking at any finalist, ask yourself these seven questions:

• How do I know what I know about this person?
• Where did the information come from? Did it come directly from the candidate, a reference the candidate chose, or someone who met them once at an industry event?
• How current is the data? Does the reference describe the person today or five years ago?
• How relevant is it to this specific job?
• What else have I been this sure about that turned out differently?
• What other explanations fit the same results? Did the market rebound, or did they inherit a great team from their predecessor?
• What am I missing?

My confidence in a stellar candidate often drops while answering these questions. It's uncomfortable, and it can even feel unprofessional to let the doubt in. It almost feels unprofessional to question a great interview. But viewing this positively and with humility is deeply gratifying. That doubt is the process working. It is the beginning of a better bet on talent. It leads to a more realistic decision logic.

What to do: Before any final decision, answer these questions in writing for each finalist. Then list what you still need to find out, and go find it.

Once you admit you are not completely sure, you start looking for what fills the gaps. You become open to views that disagree with yours. It takes discipline to do this, and it is worth it.

3. Bring in more people, on purpose.

Gathering information alone has a limit, because one person sees a candidate from one single perspective. Being serious and devoted to finding more information means finding more perspectives. This is why a solid hiring team is essential for most high stakes hiring decisions.

A hiring team is not a group project. It is not a democracy simulation where people vote thumbs up or down for a candidate. It is definitely not a development opportunity for a senior manager who just wants exposure to the interview process. Forming a solid hiring team is valuable because each person brings different experience and knowledge, and can therefore have better conversations with the candidate.

A good hiring team for leadership roles includes specific viewpoints. A strong hiring team usually looks like this:

• The recruiter  has seen the candidate across the whole process. They notice how the candidate communicated, what they asked, and what they avoided.
• Peers (for example, EC members at that property or similar ones) know whether the candidate would make the team stronger, because they know the gaps.
• The superior (GM, VP) knows what the job really demands, beyond the description.
• People who know the property (regional leadership, the asset manager) understand its owner, guests, and history, and can interpret answers an outsider would miss.
• An external advisor has no stake in the seat and can ask the difficult questions that others are too close to ask.

You must also leverage references as an active part of the interview team and not just as a compliance check. This mindset change makes a massive difference and increments the quality of your decision.

Here is another idea; if you work in a company with multiple similar properties, do not limit yourself to having a hiring team with only peers from the property that is hiring. Bring in people from other similar properties. Bring in leaders who worked at that property before they got promoted. People admire this practice. It clearly shows the strength of the hiring culture in an organization.

Hiring culture also shows in how the team reacts when you say you found someone. A weak team congratulates you. A strong team asks why you think this is the right person, what that is based on, and what has not been asked yet.

Advisors help you build the belief, an audience just applauds it.

Creating that collaborative environment is not easy if people are not used to challenging ideas or seeking new information. Sharing your confidence level makes this easier. Saying you are at 80% on this candidate tells people you are not certain. It invites them to share what they know. People with doubts tend to stay quiet when someone sounds completely sure. A number below 100 opens the door, and it makes you more credible as a leader.

This practice also changes how you judge yourself, and this part is key. If your confidence moves from high to medium after a calibration meeting with your hiring team, you did not fail. You learned something.

What to do: Choose your hiring team before the search starts. Set the tone and expectations immediately. Tell them you want information seekers and not groupthink. Ask each person to challenge your thinking instead of confirming it. Share your confidence level in every debrief, and ask each person what they know that you do not.

Your standing as a good hiring manager doesn't depend on having been right the first time. It depends on how well you take in new information and adjust. There is no problem in finding evidence that contradicts your belief. The problem is not using it.

Conclusion

Great hiring managers are usually very good at spotting talent. That is the target. The next critical step is your aim. Aiming is mostly about forming an informed decision. An informed decision comes from higher quality information, and you need to actively seek it out. If you do not, you might miss the target completely. Do not go by yourself. Form a strong hiring team.

The next time someone comes to you and says they found the perfect candidate, ask them: "how do you know?"

Surround yourself with people who ask that exact question back to you when you are overconfident or overexcited. In hiring, and maybe in life too, those are the people who help you take better decisions and keep your feet on the ground.

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